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Monday, 29 January 2018

达沃斯的意外:不再愤怒的特朗普

特朗普来到达沃斯,很少人知道该期待什么。
来的是好战的特朗普?——他来这里是为了指责全球精英们脱离现实,不懂人们真正想要的东西?
来的是想和解的特朗普?——他想换一种不同的语调来对话?
我们听说是第二种。
特朗普触及了达沃斯论坛的许多敏感区域。但很多人还不知道如何去消化其言论,因为他们本来以为这是一只好斗的公牛。
特朗普谈到被遗忘的声音——这是“超级富豪”圈里一个不变的主题,他们逐渐意识到,如果对资本主义制度的信仰想要持续,就必须做出改变。
他说经济成就不仅和产品总量有关,更应该和所有人相关。
他说,做生意不能忘记对员工负有的义务。
批评者们选择显而易见的漏洞进行攻击。比如,所得税削减后,富人将获得更多。企业享受到的减税也远远大于美国中产阶级。
特朗普说“美国第一”并不意味着“美国孤立”。这是演讲的重点。
公平交易,而非贸易战
包括美国总统首席经济顾问、美国国家经济委员会负责人加里•科恩(Gary Cohn)在内,很多美国政界领袖都回应了特朗普“公平交易,而非贸易战”的呼声。
有人担忧,在特朗普领导下的美国将出台一系列的贸易壁垒。与此同时,参加达沃斯论坛的多数政府领导人都在为全球化大唱赞歌,包括印度的纳伦德拉·莫迪、加拿大的贾斯汀·特鲁多和法国的伊曼纽尔·马克龙。
但如今我们听到了一个有所不同的宣言。特朗普说,美国不想要贸易战,要的是公平交易。
对韩国等国家来说,这个表态可能会很意外,因为这周美国对进口太阳能电池板和洗衣机加征关税,这些国家首当其冲。
特朗普的论点是这样的:
自由贸易的规则是二战后建立起来的,当时美国的经济利益植根于其他国家经济的成功发展。
这些国家成为美国产品的客户。
这个情况变了,中国成了更强大的经济体。
亚洲新兴市场、南美和欧洲现在都在全球贸易的竞争中展现实力。
特朗普说,国家计划、知识产权盗窃和出口补贴是全球贸易的新武器,并被用于对付美国。
“公平互惠的交易”成了美国的新口头禅。
如果美国政府认为没有得到这样的待遇,总统将采取行动,比如,通过一项行政命令,退出亚太地区伙伴关系协议(TPP)。
互惠互利
这是一个还没有落地的信息。
投资公司贝莱德(BlackRock)首席执行官拉里·芬克(Larry Fink)对我说:“我不认为重新审视一些不对称的条款是不恰当的。”
“现在有些国家非常强大,非常发达,这将是一场漫长的竞赛。”
他说:“世界正在受益于全球贸易,我们需要找到创造更多贸易的途径,以使全球更多人受益。”
美国仍然是一个贸易国家,其从全球化中得到的经济利益要远远大于从贸易保护主义措施中所获得的利益。
这条基本经济常识使得特朗普只能采取不同的语调——尤其是面对那些能够左右资金投向的商界领袖和投资者时。特朗普不能像面对国内“铁锈地带”的失业工人那样对投资人发表讲话。
所以特朗普说,美国已经准备开展“互利的”双边交易。
他甚至表示可以与TPP重新接触。在贸易领域,这是特朗普2.0版。
过去特朗普可能是愤怒的,但今天,经济现实软化了这位总统。

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特朗普在达沃斯经济论坛上的演讲全文

It’s a privilege to be here at this forum an business and science diplomacy and people from world affairs gathered for many, many years to discuss how we can to advance prosperity and peace. I’m here to represent the interests of the America people and affirm America’s friendship and partnership in building a better world.
很荣幸来到这个论坛,商界和科技各界人士很多很多年都来到这里讨论如何推动繁荣和和平。我来到这里,代表美国人的利益,申明美国人构建更美好世界的友善和参与意愿。
Like all nations represented at this great forum, America hopes for a future which everyone can prosper and every child can grow up free from violence, poverty, and fear. Over the past year, we have made extraordinary strides in the U.S. We’re lifting up forgotten communities, creating exciting new opportunities, and helping every American find their path to the American dream. The dream of a great job, a safe home and a better life for their children.
和出席这个伟大论坛的所有国家一样,美国希望营造一个未来,让所有人都富裕起来,每一个孩子都能远离暴力、贫穷和恐惧。过去一年,美国取得不同寻常的进步。我们关照被遗忘的人,给他们创造新机会,帮助每个美国人找到实现美国梦的途径——伟大工作的梦、安全家园的梦,为孩子创造更好生活的梦。
After years stagnation the US is once again experiencing strong economic growth. The stock market is smashing one record after another, and has added more than $7 trillion in new wealth since my election. Consumer confidence, business confidence, and manufacturing confidence are the highest that they have been in many decades.
经过多年的停滞,经济再次强劲增长。股市连破纪录,自我当选以来,股市增加了7万亿新财富。消费者信心、企业家信心和制造业信心都达到几十年来最高点。
Since my election we’ve created 2.4 million jobs and that number is going up very, very substantially. Small business optimism is at an all-time high. New unemployment claims are near the lowest we’ve seen in almost half a century. African-American unemployment reached the lowest rate ever recorded in the United States and so has unemployment among Hispanic-Americans.
自我当选以来,我们创造了240万个岗位,这一数量还在大幅大幅上升。小企业空前乐观。最新的失业申报率接近半个世纪以来的最低点。非裔美国人失业率达到美国有记录以来新低,拉丁裔美国人也是一样。
The world is witnessing the resurgence of a strong and prosperous America. I’m here to deliver a simple message. There has never been a better time to hire, to build, to invest and to grow in the united States. America is open for business and we are competitive once again. The American economy is by far the largest in the world and we’ve just enacted the most significant tax cuts and reform in American history. We’ve massively cut taxes for the middle class, and small businesses to let working families keep more of their hard earned money.
世界见证了一个强大、繁荣美国的归来。我在这里传递这个简单的信息。这是在美国雇人、建厂、投资并获得增长的最佳时机。美国向企业张开怀抱,我们再次获得了竞争力。美国经济现在是世界上规模最大的,我们刚刚推行了美国史上最重要的减税和税制改革。我们为中产阶级和小企业大幅减税,让工人家庭更多留住好不容易赚到的钱。
We lowered our corporate tax rate from 35 percent all the way down to 21 percent. As a result, millions of workers have received tax cut bonuses from their employers in amounts as large as $3,000. The tax cut bill is expected to raise the average American’s household income by more than $4,000. The world’s largest company, apple, announced it plans to bring $245 billion in overseas profits home to America. Their total investment into the United States economy will be more than $350 billion over the next five years. Now is the perfect time to bring your business, your jobs, and your investments to the United States.
我们将公司税从35%直接降到21%。结果,数百万工人从雇主处拿到减税红包,人均高达3000美元。减税预计可以增加美国家庭收入平均超过4000美元。世界最大的公司,苹果公司,宣布计划将海外的2450亿美元利润拿回美国来。未来五年,他们对美国经济的总投资将超过3500亿美元。现在正是把你们的买卖、工作和投资弄回没美国的完美时机。
This is especially true because we have undertaken the most extensively regulatory reduction ever conceived. Regulation is stealth taxation. The U.S. Like many other countries unelected bureaucrats, we have, believe me, we have them all over the place, and they have imposed crushing and anti-business and anti-worker regulations on our citizens with no vote, no legislative debate, and no real accountability.
这肯定没错的,我们实施了最广泛的放松监管。监管就是隐形税收。美国,像许多其他不经选举就当官的国家一样,我们有,相信我,到处都是,他们对我们的公民施加强大的、反企业也反工人的规定,不经选举,不经立法讨论,不真正负责。
In America those days are over. I pledged to eliminate two unnecessary regulations for everyone new regulation. We have succeeded beyond our highest expectations. Instead of two for one, we have cut 22 burdensome regulations for everyone new rule. We are freeing our businesses and workers so they can thrive and flourish as never before. We are creating an environment that attracts capital, invites investment, and rewards production. America is the place to do business, so come to America where you can innovate, create and build.
在美国,这些日子成为过去了。我承诺为增添一个新监管就要消除两个不必要的监管。我们获得最出乎意料的成功。不是二比一,我们出台一个新法规,就取消了22个没用的法规。我们让我们的企业和工人获得自由,他们可以前所未见地取得繁荣昌盛。我们创造了吸引资本、引进投资和奖励生产的环境。美国是一个做买卖的地方,来美国吧,你在这里可以创新、创造、建设。
I believe in America. As president of the United States I will always put America first just like the leaders of other countries should put their country first also. But America first does not mean America alone. When the United States grows, so does the world. American prosperity has created countless jobs all around the globe and the drive for excellence, creativity, and innovation in the U.S. has led to important discoveries that help people everywhere live more prosperous and far healthier lives.
我相信美国。作为美国总统,我总是把美国放在第一位,就像其他国家的领导人也会把自己国家放在第一位一样。但美国优先并不意味着美国孤立。美国增长,世界也增长了。美国繁荣在全球创造了数不清的岗位,美国推动卓越、创造和创新产出重要的发现,让全世界各处的人的生活更加繁荣、更加健康。
As the United States pursues domestic reforms to unleash jobs and growth, we are also working to reform the international trading system so that it promotes broadly-shared prosperity and rewards to those who pray — play by the rules. We cannot have free and open trade if some countries exploit the system at the expense of others. We support free trade but it needs to be fair and it needs to be reciprocal because in the end unfair trade undermines us all. The United States will no longer turn a blind eye to unfair economic practices including massive intellectual property theft, industrial subsidies, and pervasive state-led economic planning.
美国谋求国内改革,创造岗位,推动增长,同时我们也改革国际贸易体系,以促进共享繁荣,奖励那些遵守规则的人。如果有的国家以他国为代价,利用这个体系,那我们不能开放自由贸易。我们支持自由贸易,但贸易要公平,要互利,因为说到底,不公平的贸易对所有人都有害处。美国不会对不公平的贸易视而不见了,包括大规模的知识产权盗窃、产业补贴和泛滥的国有经济。
These and other predatory behaviors are distorting the global markets and harming businesses and workers not just in the U.S. But around the globe. Just like we expect the leaders of other countries to protect their interests, as president of the United States, I will always protect the interests of our country, our companies, and our workers. We will enforce our trade laws and restore integrity to our trading system. Only by insisting on fair and reciprocal trade can we create a system that works not just for the U.S., but for all nations.
这样那样的掠夺行为扭曲了全球市场,不仅危害了美国的企业和工人,也危害了全球。正如我们预计的那样,各国领导人都保护本国利益,作为美国总统,我将永远保护我国、我们公司和我们工人的利益。我们会推行我们的贸易法,让我们的贸易体系正当起来。只有坚持公平互利的贸易,我们才能创造一个不仅对美国,对所有国家都公正的体系。
As I have said, the United States is prepared to negotiate mutually beneficial, bilateral trade agreements with all countries. This will include the countries within TPP, which are very important. We have agreements with several of them already. We would consider negotiating with the rest either individually or perhaps as a group if it is in the interests of all.
正如我所说,美国准备和所有国家谈判互利的双边贸易协定。这包括跨太平洋伙伴关系国家,他们非常重要。我们和其中一些已经有协定了,我们会考虑和其他国家单独或集体谈判,只要符合我们所有人的利益。
My administration is also taking swift action in other ways to restore American confidence and independent. We are lifting self-imposed restrictions on energy production to provide affordable power to our citizens and businesses and to promote energy security for our friend all around the world. No country should be held hostage to a single provider of energy. America is roaring back and now is the time to invest in the future of America.
我的政府也会采取其他果断行为恢复美国人的的信心,让美国人独立。我们取消了对能源生产的自我限制,为公民和企业提供买得起的电力,为我们在全世界的朋友强化了能源安全。没有哪个国家可以只生产一种能源,美国回来了,现在是时候投资美国的未来了。
We have dramatically cut taxes it make America competitive. We are eliminating burdensome regulations at a record pace. We are reforming the bureaucracy to make it lean, responsive and accountable and we are insuring our laws are enforced fairly. We have the best colleges and universities in the world and we have the best workers in the world. Energy is an abundant and affordable. There is never been a better time to do business in America.
我们通过大幅减税让美国具有竞争力。我们以创纪录的速度消除无用的监管。我们改革官僚体系,让它瘦身,更高效,更负责,我们确保法律公平的得到执行。我们有世界上最好的大学,我们有世界上最好的工人。能源多而不贵。在美国做生意真是千载难逢啊。
We are also making historic investments in the American military because we cannot have prosperity without security. To make the world safer from rogue regimes, terrorism and revisionist powers, we’re asking our friend and allies to invest in their own defenses and to meet their financial obligations. Our common security requires everyone to contribute their fair share.
我们还对美国军队进行历史性的投资,因为我们不能只有繁荣没有安全。让世界更安全,远离流氓体制、恐怖主义和修正主义大国,我们请求朋友和盟国也投资各自的防务,履行财政义务。我们共同的安全要求所有人都贡献应有的力量。
My administration is proud to have led historic efforts at the united nations security council and all around the world to unite all civilized nations in our campaign of maximum pressure to de-nuke the Korean peninsula. We continue to call on partners to confront Iran’s support for terrorists and block Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon. We’re also working with allies and partners to destroy jihad it terrorist organizations such as ISIS and very successfully so.
我的政府很骄傲能够领导联合国安理会和全世界做出历史性努力,联合所有文明国家尽最大努力让朝鲜半岛去核化。我们继续要求小伙伴们对抗伊朗,因为他们支持恐怖主义,阻止伊朗拥有核武器。我们也和盟国和小伙伴们一起摧毁了伊斯兰国等圣战恐怖组织,并且非常成功。
The Uniteds States is leading a very, very broad coalition to deny terrorists control of their territory and populations, to cut off their funding and to discredit their wicked ideology. I am pleased to the support that the coalition to defeat ISIS has retaken almost 100% of the territory once held by these killers in Iraq and Syria. There is still more fighting and worked to be done. And to consolidate our gains, we are committed to insuring that Afghanistan never again become as safe haven for terrorists who want to commit mass murder to our civilian populations.
美国领导了非常广泛的联军,否定恐怖分子控制土地和人口,切断他们的财源,让他们邪恶的思想蒙羞。我很高兴支持联军打败伊斯兰国,夺回伊拉克和叙利亚这些杀人者曾经占领的100%的土地。还有更多的战斗和工作要做。为了巩固我们的战果,我们致力于让阿富汗再也不会成为恐怖分子的庇护所,他们想大规模谋杀我们的普通人。
I want to thank those nations represented here today that have joined in these crucial efforts. You are not just securing your own citizens but saving lives and restoring hope for millions and millions of people. When it comes to terrorism we will do whatever is necessary to protect our nation.
我要感谢所有在场加入这场关键战斗的国家。你们不仅保证了本国公民的安全,还拯救勒数百万计数千万计的生命,给他们带来希望。我们会做一切有必要做的事保护我们的国家远离恐怖主义。
We will defend our citizens and our borders. We are also securing our immigration system as a matter of both national and economic security. America is a cutting-edge economy but our immigration system is stuck in the past. We must replace our current system of extended family chain migration with a merit-based system of admissions that selects new arrivals based on their ability to contribute to our economy, to support themselves financially, and to strengthen our country.
我们会保卫公民和疆界。我们还确保移民体系的安全,无论是国家安全还是经济安全。美国是先进的经济体,但我们的移民体系还停滞在过去。我们必须将现在一来全来的大家庭移民链条体系改变成积分制,根据能力和对我国经济的贡献来挑选新人,在财政上支持他们,让我们的国家更强大。
In rebuilding America we are also fully committed to developing our workforce. We are lifting people from dependence to Independence because we know the single-best anti-poverty program is a very simple and very beautiful paycheck. To be successful it is not enough to invest in our economy.
重建美国,我们还要全面致力于发展人力资源。我们让人们从依赖到独立,因为我们知道最好的反贫困项目就是非常简单和非常美丽的工资单。为了获得成功,仅仅投资经济还不够。
We must invest in our people. When people are forgotten the world becomes fractured. Only by hearing and responding to the voices of the forgotten can we create a bright future that is truly shared by all. The nation’s greatness is more than the sum of its production and a nation’s greatness is the sum of its citizens, the values, pride, love, devotion and character of the people who call that nation home.
我们必须投资人。把人忘了,世界也就四分五裂了。只有听听那些边缘人的声音,回应他们的诉求,我们才能创造所有人真正可以共享的美好未来。国家的伟大不仅是生产的总和,国家的伟大是所有公民、价值、骄傲、爱、奉献和那些把国家称为祖国的人的人格的总和。
From my first international G-7 summit to the G20, to the U.N. General assembly, to APEC, to the world trade organization and today at the world economic forum my administration has not only been present but has driven our message that we are all stronger when free, sovereign nations cooperate towards shared goals and they cooperate toward shared dreams.
我参加的国际会议从一开始的七国集团,到二十国集团,到联合国大会到亚太经合组织会议,到世界贸易组织会议还有今天的世界经济论坛,我的政府都来了,而且传达了我们的主张,当自由的主权国家合作致力于共同的目标,合作致力于共同的梦想时,我们所有人才变得更加强大。
Represented in this room are shared dreams. Represented in this room are some of the remarkable citizens from all over the worlds. You are national leaders, business titans, industry giants and many of the brightest mind in many fields. Each of you has the power to change hearts transform lives and shape your country’s destinies. With this power comes an obligation however, a duty of loyalty to the people, workers, customers, who made you who you are.
这个屋子里就有共同的梦想,这个屋子里有全世界最出色的公民。你们是国家领袖、商界巨头、产业大亨还有许多领域里最聪明的大脑。你们每个人都有能力改变心灵,转变生活,塑造你们国家的命运。但将这种能力化为义务,化为对人民、工人、客户的一种忠诚,这才是你们的价值。
Together let us resolve it use our power, our resources and our voices, not just for ourselves but for our people, to lift their burdens, to raise their hopes and to empower their dreams. To protect their families, their communities, their histories and their futures. That’s what we’re doing in America, and the results are totally unmistakable. It’s why new businesses and investment are flooding in. It’s why our unemployment rate is the lowest it’s been in so many decades. It’s why America’s future has never been brighter.
让我们一起,使用我们的能力,动用我们的资源,发出我们的声音,不仅为我们自己,也为我们的人民,减轻他们的负担,给他们以希望,让他们能够实现梦想,保护他们的家人、社区、历史和未来。这就是我在美国做的事,结果肯定是不会错的。这就是为什么新的企业和投资会涌进来。这就是我们的失业率为什么会几十年来最低。这就是为什么美国的未来从来没有这么光明。
Today, I am inviting all of you to become part of this incredible future we are building together. Thank you to our hosts, thank you to the leaders and innovators in the audience but most importantly, thank you, to all of the hard-working men and women who do their duty each and every day, making this a better world for everyone. Together let us send our love and our gratitude to make them because they really make our countries run. They make our countries great. Thank you and god bless you all. Thank you very much.
今天,我邀请大家,共同建设这一不可思议的未来。谢谢主持人,谢谢在场的领导人和创新者,更重要的是,谢谢你们,所有辛勤工作的男人和女人,你们每天完成自己的职责,为每一个人拥有更美好的世界而奋斗。让我们一起对你们表达爱和感恩,正是你们让我们的国家运转起来。你们让我们的国家伟大。谢谢,上帝保佑所有人。非常感谢。

 

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