3月15日，美国国防部公开发表一则声明，《国防部官员描述印太情势》（DOD Officials Describe Conditions in Indo-Pacific）。标题似乎并不起眼，但内容却比较震撼，这则声明不但直接指向了中共，最后还向中共领导人发出了警告。
声明最后说，“中国（中共军队）无法（与美军）相比。中国（中共）领导人可以书写绝妙的计划，但一旦出现意想不到的对抗，就将是他们的麻烦”（China has nothing comparable. Chinese leaders can write excellent plans，but once they confront the unexpected，there will be trouble for them）。
一国军队发出这样的声明，直接警告对手，接下去就差不多要宣战了。美国国防部部长奥斯汀（Lloyd Austin）上任后，迅速要求对印太地区做出评估，评估的结果再明显不过，美军不得不开始为一场新的太平洋战争做准备。
中共早就梦想着与美国打一场太平洋战争，并一举击败美国，中共领导人一直想成为太平洋的霸主、世界的霸主。多年来，中共的一切对外活动都始终围绕这个目标进行，中共军队迫不及待地要建成蓝色海军，甚至只求数量、不求性能质量，火箭军的中程导弹更是直接瞄准美国舰队和印太基地，核导弹对准美国本土。
3月9日，习近平参加中共人大军队代表团讨论，称“安全形势不稳定性不确定性较大，全军要统筹好建设和备战关系”，“坚持以战领建，加强战建统筹，抓紧推进战略性、引领性、基础性重大工程，加快打造高水平战略威慑和联合作战体系”。
中共高层自知现在还不是美军的对手，不得不暂时收回了“聚焦备战打仗”的高调说辞，但仍然全力准备未来与美国一战。美军若还听不明白，就难称专业化军队了，美国国防部的最新声明，应该算是对习近平讲话的强势回应，也相当于直接警告了习近平。
声明表示，军方已经意识到印太战区的重要性，美国印太平洋司令部覆盖全球51%的地区，该地区占世界人口的60%，美国和中国是世界上最大的经济体，这里有最多的士兵、最大的海军、最长的距离……对于美军而言，中共在持续挑战，美军必须做出回应。声明也提到了朝鲜、俄罗斯和暴力极端主义活动不断增加，印太司令部将直面挑战，支持该地区的开放和自由，支持善政、制止侵略。
声明描述了中共的军事扩张行为，表示中共已将南中国海和东中国海岛屿军事化，并部署了导弹。中共领导人谈到要武统台湾，在2020年的大瘟疫中，中共军队仍然服役了25艘新的主力战舰。
中共早就对第一岛链跃跃欲试，美军的公开声明彻底点透了中共的野心。声明认为，当美军在阿富汗和伊拉克作战时，中共一直在把美军当作假想敌、不断试图追赶，导致了美军常规威慑力的削弱。
为了应对中共的威胁，美军提出了明确的印太战略，即强化与盟友的深入合作，加快在更多地点的动态、分散部署。声明还强调，“我们相信权力下放”，“当有人向美国士兵或海军陆战队员投掷手榴弹时，他们会用最好的方式战斗，周围没人能告诉他们该怎么做。”
这表明，美军已经把应对冲突的指挥权和应变决策权下放，随时准备应对与中共的可能冲突。这句话的寓意相当明显，中共军队应该没有机会向美军扔手榴弹，最可能先发动导弹袭击，美军表明将迅速做出反应，不会等到导弹落地；或者说，美军在警告，一旦发现中共有攻击的企图，美军很可能先发制人，无须逐级汇报、请示。
美军显然看准了中共的最大软肋，中共军队若没有中央军委、甚至习近平的指令，绝不敢轻易开火、应变、调动，在瞬息万变的战场，中共集权式的指挥体系将无法适应，平时互相监督、制衡造成的上下不信任，将导致战时的致命性后果。相比之下，美军按照专业化原则，向基层指挥官授权，无疑是胜负的关键。
因此，美国国防部的声明最后特意强调，中共军队与美军没有可比性，中共领导人可能只会喊口号、让下属编写文件，若真开战，中共领导人将会遇到大麻烦。
这句话或许还有深层含义，即一旦美中爆发军事冲突，美军的反击可能同时针对中共领导人，也就是斩首行动。这又引申出了另一层更深的含义，即美军一旦反击，很可能以摧毁中共政权为最终目标，这在美军的历次战事中都已经证明，最终直捣黄龙府，才能消除真正的威胁。
奥斯汀出访日本、韩国、印度之际，美国国防部发出这样的声明相当不一般，美军明显预感到一场新太平洋战争可能在所难免，并开始着手认真准备，下一步，就要看美军是否会对中共政权划下清晰的红线了。
原文：https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2536889/dod-officials-describe-conditions-in-indo-pacific/
-----------------------
DOD Officials Describe Conditions in Indo-Pacific
The Indo-Pacific has always been a region of superlatives, but the terms have changed over the past decades.
Now people talk about the Indo-Pacific being a "region of consequence," "the priority theater," or the "global economic engine."
For decades, the U.S. military has recognized the importance of the theater. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command covers 51 percent of the globe. The region has 60 percent of the world's population. The United States and China are the world's largest economies. The most soldiers, the biggest navies, the longest distances, most endangered and much, much more. There are hundreds of languages and cultures and environments.
China is the pacing challenge for the United States military, and service members must respond — but it's not the only challenge in the region.
"We've all had these concerns for decades — the rising China, [North Korea], Russia, violent extremist activities — but their scope, volume, scale are much more problematic," said a senior defense official.
Added to all this is the issue of climate change, which touches fundamentally on many of the island nations of Oceania. Also a problem is that this is the Ring of Fire, where tectonic plates collide causing volcanoes, earthquakes and tsunamis. Top it off with COVID-19 and the global pandemic, and there is a complex brew of problems and issues.
China, Russia, North Korea and violent extremism are in the Indo-Pacific and operate there every day. The threats are a direct challenge to the mission of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command to provide freedom and mobility for commerce in the region, to support good governance, and to deter aggression.
The best weapon in the arsenal is the U.S. network of allies and partners. Unlike Europe where NATO and the European Union have inured the nations to working together multilaterally, the Indo-Pacific doesn't have that architecture, a senior defense official said.
The United States has treaty allies in the region: the Republic of Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Thailand, Australia and New Zealand.
While the United States works bilaterally with many nations in the region, leaders would like to see more multilateral engagement. "The Quad" call that President Joe Biden participated in with the leaders of Australia, India and Japan is promising, officials said. The Quad is not a security pact, but it could grow into an arena that allows the countries to cooperate more.
China's behavior in the region — from fighting with India at the line of control, to increasing efforts and patrols in the Indian Ocean region — is worrisome to India. "They are aware of that and the traditionally non-aligned country is starting to do more with the United States, with Australia and with Japan," the official said. "India is not going to sign a mutual defense treaty with us any time soon, but they are a major defense partner of the United States and they are trying to become more interoperable with the U.S. military in their military capabilities, their command and control, their information sharing."
This is important because the region is so vast and so varied that no one country can do it alone. The United States will need allies and partners to defend the rules-based architecture that has benefited so many — including China.
The U.S. center of gravity is the friends and allies who want a free and open Indo-Pacific. China and Russia really do not have a network even close to this.
U.S. government officials will study the basing of U.S. troops in the region. This doesn't mean bases, but spaces. "We are not looking to reposition large numbers of troops, in large vulnerable concentrations," the official said. "We want to get the virtues of massing without the vulnerabilities of concentration."
This means troops positioning in many different countries in episodic and dynamic ways. The U.S. military doesn't require new and permanent bases in Indonesia and Malaysia, for example. "What we need is episodic places that support operations with our allies and partners," the official said.
Also, officials do not know China's plans, "and anyone who says they do, is probably being a little disingenuous," officials said.
China has built islands in the South and East China Seas and plunked missiles on top. Chinese leaders talk of unifying Taiwan under Chinese rule, but Taiwan was never part of China.
With Taiwan in particular, Defense Department officials look at Chinese capacity. "Do they have sufficient numbers of the right pieces of equipment necessary to execute what … they would believe would be a successful operation?"
China has fielded scores of new and modern systems. "Just in 2020, in the midst of all the COVID related stuff, China still commissioned 25 major new ships," the official said.
A second part of this is that while the U.S. military was fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq, "China went to school on us: We're their pacing threat," the official said.
The Chinese army has training centers similar to those the U.S. has at Fort Irwin, California, and Fort Polk, Louisiana. "They're trying to become joint interoperable," he said.
All this leads to an erosion of U.S. conventional deterrence. Leadership processes are weak. "We believe in decentralized execution," the official said. "The American GI or Marine fights best when there are hand grenades being thrown at them, and nobody's around to tell them what to do."
China has nothing comparable. Chinese leaders can write excellent plans, but once they confront the unexpected, there will be trouble for them.
from https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2536889/dod-officials-describe-conditions-in-indo-pacific/
No comments:
Post a Comment