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Wednesday, 1 January 2025

awesome-tunneling

 List of ngrok/Cloudflare Tunnel alternatives and other tunneling software and services. Focus on self-hosting. 

The purpose of this list is to track and compare tunneling solutions. This is primarily targeted toward self-hosters and developers who want to do things like exposing a local webserver via a public domain name, with automatic HTTPS, even if behind a NAT or other restricted network.

NOTE: We're building a community around self-hosting, data ownership, and decentralization in general. Join us over at IndieBits.io.

The dream

I started this list because I'm looking for a simple tool/service that does the following:

  • Allows me to register a domain name and automatically points the records at the server running the tunnels.
  • Automatically sets up and manages HTTPS certificates (apex and subdomains) for the domain.
  • Provides a client tool that tunnels HTTP/TCP connections through the server without requiring root on the client.
  • Provides a simple GUI interface to allow me to map X domain/subdomain to Y port on Z client, and proxy all connections to that domain.

So far I haven't found a tool that does all of this. In particular, while some of them can do automatic certs through Let's Encrypt, none of them integrate the domain registration and DNS management in a simple way.

Recommendations

  • For most people, I currently recommend Cloudflare Tunnel. Although it's closed source, this is the production-quality service that gets the closest to achieving the dream. It's also a loss-leader for Cloudflare's other products which means they can offer it for free.
  • If you want to self-host, there are many options. For something production ready frp is probably what you want. If you're a developer, I'd recommend starting with my own SirTunnel project and modifying it for your needs. For non-developers and those wanting more of a GUI experience, I created boringproxy. It's my take on a comprehensive tunnel proxy solution. It's in beta but currently solves almost everything I want. Once the server is running this is a very easy tool to use and has some nice features.

Open source (at least with a reasonably permissive license)

  • Telebit - Written in JS. Code.
  • tunnel.pyjam.as - No custom client; uses WireGuard directly instead. Written in Python. source code
  • SSH-J.com - Public SSH Jump & Port Forwarding server. No software, no registration, just an anonymous SSH server for forwarding. Users are encouraged to use it for SSH exposure only, to preserve end-to-end encryption. No public ports, only in-SSH connectivity. Run ssh ssh-j.com and it will display usage information.
  • frp frp github stars badge - Comprehensive open alternative to ngrok. Supports UDP, and has a P2P mode. Supports multiplexing over TCP (single connection or pool), QUIC, and KCP.
  • ngrok 1.0 ngrok 1.0 github stars badge - Original version of ngrok. No longer developed in favor of the commercial 2.0 version.
  • localtunnel/localtunnel localtunnel github stars badge - Written in node. Popular suggestion.
  • chisel chisel github stars badge - SSH under the hood, but still uses a custom client binary. Supports auto certs from LetsEncrypt. Written in Go.
  • sshuttle sshuttle github stars badge - Open source project originally from one of the founders of Tailscale. Server doesn't require root; client does. Explicitly designed to avoid TCP-over-TCP issues.
  • rathole rathole github stars badge - Similar to frp, including the config format, but with improved performance. Low resource consumption. Hot reload. Written in Rust.
  • bore bore github stars badge - Minimal tunneling solution. MIT Licensed. Written in Rust.
  • expose expose github stars badge - ngrok alternative written in PHP.
  • sish sish github stars badge - Open source ngrok/serveo alternative. SSH-based but uses a custom server written in Go. Supports WebSocket tunneling.
  • wstunnel wstunnel github stars badge - Proxies over WebSockets. Focus on proxying from behind networks that block certain protocols. Written in Rust with executables provided.
  • gost gost github stars badge - Looks like a comprehensive option. TCP and UDP tunneling. TAP/TUN devices. Load balancing. Web API. Written in Go.
  • progrium/localtunnel localtunnel github stars badge - As far as I know this is the first ever tool of this kind, predating ngrok and the other localtunnel. No longer maintained, but here for posterity. MIT License. Written in Go.
  • go-http-tunnel go-http-tunnel github stars badge - Uses a single HTTP/2 connection for muxing. Need to manually generate certs for server and clients.
  • pgrok/pgrok pgrok github stars badge - A multi-tenant HTTP reverse tunnel solution through SSH remote port forwarding.
  • zrok zrok github stars badge - Aims for effortless sharing both publicly and privately. Supports multiple types of resources, including HTTP endpoints and files. Built on OpenZiti (see overlay section below). Apache 2 License. Written in Go.
  • portr portr github stars badge - Has a JavaScript/Python admin page and request inspection/replay features. AGPL-3.0 License. Tunneling implemented in Go.
  • tunnelto tunnelto github stars badge - Open source (MIT). Written in Rust.
  • piko piko github stars badge - Piko is an open-source alternative to Ngrok, designed to serve production traffic and be simple to host (particularly on Kubernetes). MIT License. Written in Go.
  • gsocket/Global Socket gsocket github stars badge - The Global Socket Toolkit allows two users behind NAT/Firewall to establish a TCP connection with each other. Securely. Written in C.
  • SirTunnel SirTunnel github stars badge - Minimal, self-hosted, 0-config alternative to ngrok. Similar to sish but leverages Caddy+OpenSSH rather than custom server code.
  • boringproxy boringproxy github stars badge - Designed to be very easy to use. No config files. Clients can be remote-controlled through a simple WebUI and/or REST API on the server.
  • Tunnelmole tunnelmole github stars badge - Open source and optionally self hostable. The client and server are both written in TypeScript.
  • jprq jprq github stars badge - Proxies over WebSockets. Written in Go.
  • Wiretap wiretap github stars badge - Transparent tunneling over WireGuard (UDP) using userspace network stack. Root not required on server. Supports multiple clients and servers. Written in Go.
  • PageKite pagekite github stars badge - Comprehensive open source solution with hosted options.
  • onionpipe onionpipe github stars badge - Onion addresses for anything. onionpipe forwards ports on the local host to remote Onion addresses as Tor hidden services and vice-versa. Written in Go.
  • Crowbar crowbar github stars badge - Tunnels TCP connections over HTTP GET and POST requests.
  • tunneller tunneller github stars badge - Open source. Written in Go.
  • tunnel tunnel github stars badge - This one is a Golang library, not a program you can just run. However, it looks easy to use for creating custom solutions. Uses a single TCP socket, and yamux for multiplexing.
  • jerson/pgrok pgrok github stars badge - Fork of ngrok 1.0, with more recent commits. Archived.
  • remotemoe remotemoe github stars badge - SSH-based, with custom golang server. Does some cool unique things. Instead of just plain tunnels, it drops you into a basic CLI UI that offers several useful commands interactively, such as adding a custom hostname. Also allows end-to-end encryption for both HTTPS and upstream SSH. Doesn't appear to offer non-e2e HTTPS, ie no auto Let's Encrypt support.
  • docker-tunnel docker-tunnel github stars badge - Simple Docker-based nginx+SSH solution.
  • hypertunnel frp github stars badge - Public server appears to be down. MIT Licensed. Written in JavaScript.
  • tunwg tunwg github stars badge - Wireguard in userspace based. Offers end to end encrypted TLS with LetsEncrypt certificates generated automatically by clients, with support for custom domains. Server can be self-hosted and doesn't require storing any data.
  • reverse-tunnel reverse-tunnel github stars badge - Support TCP and UDP tunnels. Has docker images. Supports Let's Encrypt. MIT License. Written in Go.
  • gtgt github stars badge - Supports peer-to-peer direct connection (P2P) and Internet relay. Focus on performance. Written in Go.
  • jkuri/bore bore github stars badge - Reverse HTTP/TCP proxy via SSH. Written in Go.
  • EXPOSE EXPOSE github stars badge - SSH-based open source tool, with no configuration or installation, distributed worldwide, to expose your local services. Uses your GitHub username and public SSH keys to authenticate you and provide you with a short personalised URL. AGP-3.0 License. Written in Python.
  • srv.us srv.us github stars badge - SSH-based. Terminates TLS. Hostnames based on your key, optionally GitHub and/or GitLab username. 0BSD License. Written in Go.
  • holepunch holepunch github stars badge - Uses SSH for muxing. Domain has expired. AGP-3.0 Licensed. Written in Python.
  • docker-wireguard-tunnel ngtor github stars badge - Connect two or more Docker servers together sharing container ports between them via a WireGuard tunnel.
  • cactus-tunnel cactus tunnel github stars badge - 🌵 A charming TCP tunnel over WebSocket and Browser. Written in TypeScript.
  • chiSSL chiSSL github stars badge - Lightweight version of Chisel that allows you to expose local servers running on your development machine to the internet with valid SSL certificates. MIT License. Written in Go.
  • specter specter github stars badge - Interesting approach utilizing a DHT. QUIC transport. MIT License. Written in Go.
  • tnnlink tnnlink github stars badge - SSH-based. Golang. Not maintained.
  • ngtor ngtor github stars badge - Easily expose local services via Tor. Written in Java.
  • Punchmole punchmole github stars badge - Can be integrated directly into an existing Node.js project. Written in JavaScript.
  • ephemeral-hidden-service ephemeral-hidden-service github stars badge - Create ephemeral Tor hidden services from the command line. Written in Python.
  • netmask lostproxy github stars badge - A TCP/UDP self-hostable network tunneling solution that supports IPv4 and IPv6. Client has a GUI. MIT License. Written in Python.
  • tunnelite tunnelite github stars badge - A self-hostable tunneling solution for TCP, HTTP and WS connections over websockets. CLI client. MIT License. Written in .NET.

Commercial/Closed source

  • ngrok 2.0 - Probably the gold standard and most popular. Closed source. Lots of features, including TLS and TCP tunnels. Doesn't require root to run client.
  • Cloudflare Tunnel - Excellent free option. Nicely integrates tunneling with the rest of Cloudflare's products, which include DNS and auto HTTPS. Client source code is Apache 2.0 licensed and written in Golang.
  • Microsoft Dev Tunnels - Not as useful for self-hosting (no custom domains and it shows warnings when people visit the URLs), but a solid option for dev work.
  • Livecycle Docker Extension - Offer much more than just tunneling. Have a collaboration layer (Dashboard) that allows you to bring collaborations, debug, and gather feedback from the people you are working with. Share HTTPS URLs.
  • Beeceptor - Goes beyond tunneling. Rest API mocking and intercepting tool. You can view the live requests and send mocked responses. Written in JavaScript.
  • Pinggy - SSH based single command HTTPS / TCP / TLS tunnels, no downloads required. Rich terminal interface and a web debugger. Free tier - 60 min timeout. The paid tier allows custom domains with built-in Let's Encrypt certificates.
  • Loophole - Offers end-to-end TLS encryption with the client automatically getting certs from Let's Encrypt. QR codes for URL sharing. The client is open source. Can serve a local directory over WebDAV. MIT License. Written in Go.
  • localhost.run - Simple hosted SSH option. Supports custom domains for a cost.
  • Packetriot - Comprehensive alternative to ngrok. HTTP Inspector, Let's Encrypt integration, doesn't require root and Linux repos for apt, yum and dnf. Enterprise licenses and self-hosted option.
  • Horizon Tunnel - Easy to use HTTP(S) and websocket tunneling aimed at development. Free tier available. Fixed URL is part of paid plans.
  • Hoppy - WireGuard-based. Provides static IPv4 and IPv6 addresses for your machines, which is a simple and useful level of abstraction. Targeted towards self-hosters and people behind NATs.
  • gw.run - Specifically focusing on securely exposing internal web apps to a group of people; not for publicly facing apps. Share access via email address then allow users to log in with common login providers like Google.
  • SSHReach.me - Paid SSH-based option. Uses a simple Python script.
  • KubeSail - Company offering tunneling, dynamic DNS, and other services for self-hosting with Kubernetes.
  • inlets - Used to be open source; now focused on a polished commercial offering. Designed to work well with Kubernetes.
  • LocalToNet - Supports UDP. Free for a single tunnel. Paid supports custom domains.
  • LocalXpose - Looks like a solid paid option, with a limited free tier.
  • playit.gg playit.gg github stars badge - Specifically marketed as tunneling for game servers. Client is open source. Server is not. Has a free tier. TCP and UDP supported. Custom domains and dedicated IPs available. Client written in Rust.
  • Tabserve.dev - Web UI that runs entirely in the browser and uses a Cloudflare Worker for https.
  • Serveo - SSH-based, signup optional, offering HTTP(S) and TCP tunneling and SSH jump host forwarding capabilities.
  • Homeway - Secure and private remote access for Home Assistant. The free tier has a monthly data limit cap, but unlimited data is only $2.49/month.
  • btunnel - Expose localhost and local tcp server to the internet. The free plan includes file server, custom http request and response headers, basic auth protection and 1 hour tunnel timeout.
  • remote.it - Tunnels SSH, HTTP/S, TCP, Docker, popular database etc. allows mapping a local port to a remote port.
  • StaqLab Tunnel staqlab github stars badge - SSH-based. The client is open source. The server doesn't appear to be.
  • LocalCan - MacOS app for exposing local apps, has custom domains with built-in Let's Encrypt certificates. It also can publish .local domains on the local network.
  • Openport.io Openport.io github stars badge - Open-source client, written in Go. Supports HTTP(S) and TCP. REST Api. No account needed. Web dashboard. Also works on ESP32.
  • Lokal.so HTTP/TCP/UDP Tunneling & Debugging, zero-config .local address with https, built-in S3 Server, AI Assistant, available as Desktop GUI, Web, REST API, and *CLI, available on Mac, Windows and Linux.

Overlay networks and other advanced tools

  • headscale headscale github stars badge - Open source implementation of Tailscale control server. Can be used with Tailscale's official open source client. Written in Go.
  • Tailscale tailscale github stars badge - Built on WireGuard. Easy to use. Control server is closed source. Client code available with a BSD3 license + separate patents file.
  • Teleport teleport github stars badge - Comprehensive control plane tool, but also supports accessing apps behind NATs. Written in Go.
  • Nebula - nebula github stars badge Peer-to-peer overlay network. Developed and used internally by Slack. Similar to Tailscale but completely open source. Doesn't use WireGuard. Written in Go.
  • ZeroTier - zerotier github stars badge Layer 2 overlay network. They take decentralization seriously, and like to say "decentralize until it hurts, then centralize until it works." Written in C++.
  • Netmaker netmaker github stars badge - Layer 3 peer-to-peer overlay network and private DNS. Similar to Tailscale, but with a self-hosted server/admin UI. Runs kernel WireGuard so very fast. Apache 2.0 License. Written in Go.
  • NetBird netbird github stars badge - NetBird is an open-source VPN management platform built on top of WireGuard® making it easy to create secure private networks for your organization or home.
  • Firezone firezone github stars badge - Layer 3/4 overlay network. Runs on kernel WireGuard® and supports SSO using generic OIDC/SAML connectors. Distributed under Apache 2.0 license and written in Elixir/Rust.
  • n2n - n2n github stars badge - Built on nodes and supernodes. GPL-3.0 license. Written in C.
  • innernet innernet github stars badge - Similar to Netmaker, Nebula, and Tailscale. Takes advantage of existing networking concepts like CIDRs and the security properties of WireGuard to turn your computer's basic IP networking into more powerful ACL primitives. Written in Rust.
  • Portals for Mac ockam github stars badge - A Mac app that uses the Ockam library to privately share a service on your Mac to anyone, anywhere. The service is shared securely over an end-to-end encrypted Ockam Portal. Apache 2.0 License. Written in Rust.
  • Pritunl pritunl github stars badge - Seems quite comprehensive and complicated. OpenVPN, WireGuard, and IPSec support.
  • Tinc tinc github stars badge - Tinc is a peer-to-peer VPN daemon that supports VPNs with an arbitrary number of nodes. Instead of configuring tunnels, you give Tinc the location and public key of a few nodes in the VPN. After making the initial connections to those nodes, tinc will learn about all other nodes on the VPN, and will make connections automatically. When direct connections are not possible, data will be forwarded by intermediate nodes. Written in C.
  • OpenZiti - OpenZiti github stars badge - Overlay network. The goal of OpenZiti is to extend zero trust all the way into your application, not just to your network. Apache 2.0 license. Written in Go.
  • weron - weron github stars badge - Built on WebRTC. Can create Layer 2 and Layer 3 networks. NAT traversal via STUN and TURN. AGPL-3.0 license. Written in Go.
  • bifrost bifrost github stars badge - Bifrost is a peer-to-peer communications engine with pluggable transports. It supports dynamic configuration of transports, listeners, forwarding rules, and can tunnel other protocols over WebRTC and Quic. Apache 2.0 License. Written in Go.
  • Ngrok-operator ngrok operator github stars badge - Ngrok but integrated with Kubernetes, allows developers on private Kubernetes to easily access their services via Ngrok.
  • chisel-operator chisel operator github stars badge - Kubernetes integration for Chisel. Similar functionality to inlets. MIT License. Written in Rust.
  • frp-operator frp-operator github stars badge - Kubernetes integration for FRP. MIT License. Written in Go.
  • Mycoria mycoria github stars badge - Overlay network where the IPv6 address is the key: Easily share address + public key via a DNS AAAA record or map names locally. Secure by default (firewall included). BSD-3 license. Written in Go.

Reference

Discussions

from  https://github.com/anderspitman/awesome-tunneling

 

2025年中国的12大危机

 

危机之一:习近平党内地位的衰弱化

习近平的年事已高,2025年已是73岁。从面色通红、行动阑珊、反应迟缓等等肢体行动来看,似乎有心血管或慢性病缠身的迹象,显示习近平的健康问题即使尚未亮起红灯,至少也已闪起黄灯!

习近平面对党内外、国内外,以及社会经济各方面因“独裁者误判”所导致的危机,精神压力极大,孤立无援感非常明显。特别是最近《解放军报》在一个月之内连发四篇文章。以“集体领导”(民主集中)挑战习近平的“中央军委负责制”(一人独裁),透过讨论军队权力体制,与习近平的治军理念大唱反调,这显然是对于习近平个人权威的质疑和挑战,是一个“打着邓旗反习旗”的强烈讯号。

随后,党刊《求是》发表习近平反击的文章,强调要“自我革命”、“刀刃向内”,意思是习近平要继续清洗军队、斩草除根。这种“军报”与“党刊”互打擂台的现象,似乎在重演“党内斗争,舆论先行”的先例和戏码,一如当年华国锋提出“两个凡是”,邓小平提出“实践是检验真理的唯一标准”互打对台,这场舆论斗争预演了后来的权力斗争,结果邓派打倒了毛派。

诸种现象透露了习近平充满了“不安全感”和“重度焦虑感”,包括他的智囊与幕僚,都已变成“伴君如伴虎”的高危险行业,只能报喜,不能报忧。加上层出不穷的突发性社会攻击事件,证明了习近平的统治并非“铁板一块”,习近平的地位也不是“定于一尊”,党内不满习近平的大有人在。

危机之二:习近平对外战略的塌陷化

随着习近平的标竿政绩“一带一路”出现工程烂尾、排华抗争、资金缩水,“一带一路”已变成“勒紧腰带的不归之路”。全球各地已经洞悉习近平的所谓“人类生命共同体”实际上是“人类灾难共同体”。谁与中共沾边,谁就倒楣,谁讨了中国的好处,谁就必须付出代价!

随着中共在中东的战略伙伴的衰弱化,包括等待被以色列剿灭的哈玛斯,被以色列打到奄奄一息的真主党,被以色列打到无力招架的伊朗,以及与中共有“战略伙伴关系”的叙利亚阿塞德政权的跨台,都已证明中共的中东政策已经宣告破产。有人甚至说:今日的阿塞德,就是明日的习近平!

加上欧盟已经启动对中共“反财政补贴”的制裁方案,川普的关税大刀,磨刀霍霍、节节进逼,国际反共联盟已经集结完成,习近平12年来八方树敌的外交战略,已经陷入四面楚歌的境地。

危机之三:美中关系的尖锐化

毫无疑问,川普重返白宫之后的对中政策,将是中国2025年最大的危机。川普已经宣布,将对中国课征60%为起跳的关税,而且没有上限。在此同时,在美国国会与各种智库建议之下,美国极可能废除对中国的“贸易最惠国待遇”(PNTR)。在川普的新内阁之中,从国务卿、国安顾问、国防部长、财政部长、商务部长、贸易代表等国安和财经官员,全属“对中鹰派”。换言之,川普的中国政策将不再延续拜登的“管理竞争,避免冲突”的软性对抗,而是全面猎杀的“新暖战”,对中共进行“行刑式枪决”和政权灭绝的目标。

近期,拜登政府决定对中国的传统晶片进行贸易法301条款的调查,预计调查结果将在2025年六月之前完成。报告一出,中国违法之结果必是预期之中。此时正好衔接川普就任后不久,调查结果必将授予川普合法理由,对中国加重关税。

面对中国的全球低价倾销,西方贸易保护主义已顺势抬头,自由贸易的理念也将烟消雾散。中国将面临包括美国在内的全球贸易大战。这是因为中国系统性颠覆了整个自由贸易的框架,乃至侵略了美国根据“世界贸易组织”所囊括的市场,从2025年开始,美国将致力于把原先投资设厂于中国的产业链一一收回美国。对于中国过去几年对西方国家的不公平贸易和产业掠夺,中国必将付出代价。

尽管人们怀疑川普是否会“用足”60%的高关税,但即使仅有一半30%生效,就足以使中国的GDP下降0.8至1个百分点,并造成中国的出口和投资大幅放缓。许多信评机构,例如“标准普尔”(S&P)就预估中国2025年GDP成长率为4.1%,低于中国设定的5%。如果川普用足了或祭出比60%更高的关税,中国的GDP增长极可能拦腰折半。

危机之四:国民财富的萎缩化

疫情解封之后的经济低迷,从个人所得下滑直到外汇存底的流失,这种从“寒冬经济”到“结冰经济”的趋势,预估2025年将继续延续和探底。

一个重大的指标是,中国已经出现30年来首次出现的“国民所得毛额”(GNI)下降的趋势。截至2024年底,依据“国际货币基金组织”(IMF)根据人均收入、贸易自由度、金融开放度等标准,划全球发达经济体共有41个,其中不包括中国。2023年中国人均国民总收入(GNI)为13400美元,仅相当于美国的17%、德国的25%,日本的34%,而且仅仅是41个发达经济体平均值的27%。

2024年陆续推出的刺激方案,我称之为“症状治疗”,仅仅出现短线行情,没有产生起死回生的效果。过去人们常说中国已经陷入“中等收入陷阱”,但随着经济情势未见改善并持续恶化,中国不只是停滞在中等收入陷阱之前,而是反转坠入到我创造的一个名词:“低等收入陷阱”。这是一种国民财富总体性缩水的“锁定效应”(lock-in effect),也就是国民收入处于长期性“低收入底部水平滑动”的趋势,这就是党的一元化领导下的路径依赖所形成的体制性衰败。

根据“联合国开发计划署”发表的《2023/24年人类发展报告》,中国的“人类发展指数”为0.788,仅排全球第75位。无论是劳动生产率、人均工业增加值、千人汽车保有量,还是人均教育支出、医疗支出、社会保障支出,中国都与发达国家维持并扩大差距,

危机之五:社会阶层的碎裂化

一般来说,一个正常的社会呈现的是“资产阶级投资、中产阶级经营、底层阶级劳动”的分工状态,这是古典经济学家David Ricardo“比较利益最佳化”的概念;这其中,三个主要阶级的“利益分享”非常重要,如果出现利益分裂,就会造成社会阶层的碎裂化,进而影响政治的合法性与稳定性。

中国社会阶层的碎裂化主要根源在于“停滞性经济萎缩”,主要表现在:“资产阶级逃脱”、“中产阶级塌陷”、“底层阶级困顿”三个方面。具体表现在个人方面,则是企业减薪、工人欠薪、失业无薪三大症状。

1,资产阶级逃脱

在全面性消费不足的情况下,资本获利率大幅下降,也就是“投入/产出”的资本报酬率明显衰退,甚至出现负值。在此情况下,资产阶级就会减少投资或外移产业;在另一方面,由于国有企业缺乏资金流动性,只能依赖国家财政的挹注,进行刺激性扩大投资,这就会产生盲目性的产能过剩,但这种过剩却是一种“低利生产”或“亏本经营”的过剩。

2,中产阶级塌陷

投资阶层的低迷,就会让中产阶级无法履行经营与管理职能。中产阶级只好降低消费和吃老本。由于中产阶级是社会消费的主力,一旦主力萎缩,就会产生“全社会消费抑制”的现象,进而助长通货紧缩的恶化。

3,底层阶级困顿

中国的底层人民已经陷入在“基本生存线”上下浮沉的状态,这可以从各地出现欠薪抗议、讨薪维权和失业无薪的抗议事件得到证明。医护人员减薪比例高达30-%50%,公务人员发不出薪资,银行限制人民提款等等。最近频传的报复性社会攻击,例如珠海无差别攻击事件,乃至街头上与官方格斗或枪击事件,都是底层民众为生存而抗议的表现。

依据中共官方的统计,仅仅2024一年,中国就累计高达4700万劳动力无法正常找到工作,占到2023年中国城镇劳动力的10%。2025年,中国的大学毕业生将达到史上最高水平的1220万人,这将助长中国青年的就业压力。

“毕业就退休”是对中国青年失业的讽刺性描述。年轻人躺平、归隐以及强迫性享受田园生活,看似简朴或优雅,但对比过去“农民工进城”,实际上是城市就业困难而被迫返回农村提前过退休生活的逆反现象。近年来,一种称为“疗愈经济”开始抬头,也就是开设提供失业青年止伤疗痛的“途家民宿”,已及逃避现实、心灵休养的“青年养老院”。许多年轻人回到农村,过着“极简主义、消费降级”的生活。有一句流行顺口溜形容这种犬儒主义的人生观:小病扛扛就熬过去,大病扛扛就死了去!青春年华成为一种打发时间和等待流逝的苦中作乐。

危机之六:财政赤字的扩大化

中国政府解决地方政府债务的途径,基本上就是“财政挹注”和“举债还款”两套做法,简称“化债”。但是“化债”只能填补亏空,救急而不救穷,无法从根本上改善地方政府(土地依赖和公共支出浮滥)的财政结构。换言之,“化债”只是“症状治疗”,不是治本,也难以治标。无论中央政府如何撒钱挹注或举债还款,都只是在填补巨大的无底洞。

依据这次中央经济工作会议的报告,2024年安排财政赤字4.06兆元,比上年(2023)年增加1800亿元,新增地方政府专项债务限额3.9兆元,比上年增加1000亿元,发行超长期特别国债1兆元。依据中国将采取“货币宽松”和“赤字财政”的政策,2025年财政赤字将占到国内生产毛额(GDP)的4%。

尽管对比西方国家,中国的财政赤字并不算太高,但问题不在于高低,而是效益。政府举债是否超出“安全区域”,虽然有待观察,但长期而言,无可避面的持续举债必将缩小中国的举债空间与偿债能力,只是延后病痛或债留子孙。

危机之七:贫富差距的扩大化

依据“北京师范大学中国收入分配研究院”,在2021年发表的民众月收入调查数据,全中国有9.64亿人口的月收入在人民币2千元以下;报告还指出,99%的中国人只分到财富总额的1成,其他9成则掌握在1%的富人手中。

依据贫富阶级对经济下滑抗拒能力的高低有别,包括避险工具与保值能力,也就是经济不好时,富者愈富/贫者愈贫的规律,中国的贫富差距在2025年以后将继续扩大。虽然,习近平始终把“脱贫”视为他的经典政绩,所以从“美丽乡村”、“定向扶贫”到“共同富裕”,致力于解决贫富不均的问题,但是口号斗不过现实,习近平斗不过红二代、富二代“联合垄断社会财富”的暗黑手段。最近频频发生的军队贪腐问题,包括两任国防部长魏凤和、李尚福,以及中央军委副主席苗华因贪腐而下台,证明了贪腐与贫富不均之间形成了“官贪民穷”的因果关系,是中国社会“极度不正义”的尖锐表现。

危机之八:政权合法性的流沙化

前述所称中共政权的“安全焦虑感”,如今已转变为人民的“生存焦虑感”。当人民出现广泛的生存危机感和社会绝望感之时,中共的爱国主义宣传就会失去说服力。随之而来的是“不听党话,不跟党走”,中共政权的合法性就有如沙滩浮塔而转向流沙化。

最近发生一件惊人事件,就是广东韶关南华寺的三名比丘尼,在外诵经时被指称为假僧人,愤而制作影片公开指控共产党,火爆开骂习近平“死无葬身之地”。三位尼姑宣称:“中共这些大王们,统治中国将近100年了,还在天天撒谎,愚弄自己的老百姓,这是全世界的悲哀…..”等等。这三位尼姑誓言愿意“以身殉道”来证明自己的信仰与清白。

出家人本以闻声救苦、普渡众生为职志,如今连一向与世无争的佛门受戒之人,都出来控诉共产党,遑论其他社会阶层的人士,这正是对中共政权合法性的最大挑战。

危机之九:地缘政治的恶质化

随着中国外交政策的一一破产,“战狼外交”将变成“病猫外交”,特别是继续支持俄罗斯延续俄乌战争,在欧洲、南美、东协国家进行财政补贴下的低价倾销,在南海“虚张主权”并不断霸凌菲律宾。在伊朗遭受以色列攻击之后,暴露中国对伊朗核武的支持,在叙利亚阿塞德政权垮台后,中国长期支持叙利亚独裁政权的“黑历史”被曝光,以及最近在第一岛链发动“没有演习知名的演习”等等。中国在四个主要地区:欧洲、中东、南海、第一岛链,制造了地缘政治极端恶化的态势。另一方面,中国的“国际好感度”已经降至天安门事件以来的最低点,所谓“中国意象”(China Image)已经“黑化”,中国的“大外宣”实际上是“大失败”。未来,全世界将更加讨厌中国,把中国视为“地缘政治的杀手”!

三个基本事实在2025年将更趋恶化:

1,全球资本对中国市场采取“敬而远之”的态度,不再把中国视为跨国投资的首选国家。昔日想要获得中国市场准入和廉价劳动力而讨好中国的情况正在逆转,中国开始面对数以千计的技术与贸易壁垒,失去过去可以轻松获得的资源、技术、资本以及富裕国家的市场。2025年以后,所谓“中国崛起”将宣告终结。

2,世界各国对于“对中贸易”(trade with China)将采取更多的风险管制,包括安全风险与市场挤压风险。各国将跟随美国川普政府的关税政策,对中国开打不同程度的关税战。

3,随着中国“一带一路”的债务陷阱和工程烂尾继续扩大,过去在刚果、斯里兰卡、巴基斯坦、缅甸等国爆发的“反一带一路/排中浪潮”,将持续漫延。换言之,随着中国“减债能力”的下降,中国的“一带一路”已被视为“殖民利剑”。不是援助,而是掠夺;不是福利,而是破坏。

危机之十:“一中原则”的解构化

随着地缘政治关系恶化而来的,就是中国的“一中原则”将日益受到国际社会的质疑、解构和颠覆。在2024一年之中,相继有“捷克众议院外交委员会”、“英国下议院”、“欧洲议会”、“荷兰国会众议院”、“澳洲联邦国会”、“美国众议院”等等,对于中国曲解联合国2758号决议提出了强烈的批判。这些批判的共识点在于:反对中国将联大第2758号决议与“一中原则”擅作不当连结,拒绝中国声称台湾是中国领土不可分割的一部分,并支持台湾参与包括联合国的国际组织。

在此趋势下,未来将有更多的国家对“一中原则”采取批判性、反对性的态度。原先中国用来拘束两岸关系、打压台湾主权地位、阻止台湾加入国际组织、反对台湾对外官方来往……等等借口和依据,都将被解构化。中共所宣称的“‘一中原则’是国际社会的普遍共识”、“台湾是中国的一部分”等等痴人说梦,也将走向瓦解和破产。

危机之十一:民粹主义的激进化

经济恶化之时往往是民粹主义高涨的时刻。在连续两起杀害日本儿童事件爆发之后,证明中国民粹主义从未消退和收敛,一种随机性的排外仇杀事件,已经引起广泛的“国际恶感”,认为中国就是一个危险与野蛮的国度。用中国人的话来说叫做“危邦不入,乱邦不居”。

一如当年慈禧太后一口气和11个国家宣战一样,当今中国的民粹主义,我称之为“新义和团主义”,等同于向西方所有反华国家宣战。但是,对中国而言,试图打败帝国主义,首先是打败自己。在一片狂热的仇外气氛下,只有促使外国资本与企业纷纷撤离中国。

危机之十二:红色供应链的断裂化

为了反制美国即将到来的关税壁垒和经济脱钩,中国将在2025年提前向西方开打,也就是提前主动脱钩。除了运用抛售美债、人民币贬值、汇率操控等等手段,不惜与美国打一场货币战争之外,中国将展开以稀缺矿产为筹码的“供应链战争”(supply chain warfare)。

中国商务部12月3日发出禁令,即日起禁止向美国出口镓、锗、锑、石墨等和超硬材料,以作为美国对中国实施晶片禁令的报复。

确实,中国具有稀缺性战略资源的供应链优势,中国的镓产量占了全球94%,锗产量占了全球83%,锑的开采量占全球总量48%。但是贸然开打“资源脱钩战”,一手底牌全部打光,等于自断中国的红色供应链,自断西方国家对中国的资源依赖,失去自身最终的战略筹码。

实际上,中国战略资源的优势是“人为设置”的资源稀缺性,而非市场供需下的自然稀缺性。在全球资源储量上,中国垄断的稀缺资源并不稀缺。在中国限制出口并推高国际价格之后,将促使美国重新发展其国内生产能力,寻找多样化的替代供应并组建供应链同盟。例如加拿大矿业公司Teck已经表示增加锗的生产,其他例子更多。过去,只是因为提炼成本很高,中国实施低成本开采和低价竞争,导致其他国家不愿削价竞争而减产。但是,一旦价格攀高,其他国家就会恢复生产,反而使中国失去原有的供应链优势。

中国必将崩溃

许多人认为,“中国崩溃论”已经延续多年,但中共政权依然健在,所以“崩溃论”并不能成立。但是苟延残喘与魂归西天并无太大差异,久病不起与濒死状态也只是时间问题,颟顸之人总是不见棺材不掉泪,独裁政权更是变本加厉。叙利亚的阿塞德家族(父子两代)不也统治长达50几年之后一夕崩溃?苏联与东欧共党的垮台,不也是积恶成习的后果?现代历史一再证明,从纳粹德国、军国日本、独裁苏联到暴政叙利亚,凡一人揽权、穷兵黩武的政权,必将崩溃!