对于美国特朗普政府而言，3月24日注定会成为一个里程碑。这个日子带来的是一个坏消息。对一个刚刚进入第64天的新政府来说，坏消息似乎来得有些太快了。
这一天，因未能争取到多数票支持，国会众议院共和党领导层在投票前的最后时刻，撤回了旨在废除并替代俗称“奥巴马医改” （即《平价医疗法案》）的《美国医保法》草案。
新医保案流产的原因
在竞选期间，特朗普反复许诺，他的“百日新政”的第一条就是要废除并替代“奥巴马医改”。宣誓就职后当天，特朗普就签署第一项总统行政命令，研究如何推进这项工作。这也是共和党人最为关注、已努力多年的目标。通过新医保法，成为特朗普和共和党志在必得的一项任务。同时，此案的通过与否将是对特朗普领导力的一次重要测试，将影响他今后诸多议案的命运，意义重大。
新医保法案撤回后，特朗普和众议院议长瑞安都表示，在可预见的未来，“奥巴马医改”将存续，而且不大可能在近期内提出新的法案来由国会投票。相反，白宫和共和党将转向税制改革，努力实现大幅减税。
特朗普迅速把责任归咎给民主党，声称撤回原因是民主党众议员的“零支持”。但事实上，他从未游说过民主党人。所有人都知道，民主党人全力反对是预料之中的事。此事未果的主要原因是共和党内部严重分裂。在拒绝投赞成票的众议院共和党人中，保守派抱怨新医保案保留大量对医疗保险业的规制，反“奥巴马医改”不彻底，不足以将后者“连根拔起”；温和派则担忧大量工薪阶层民众将因此失去医保，或无法承担新法中提高的医保费用。3月23日公布的一项民调显示，支持新医保案的选民仅占17%。
新医保案流产暴露的问题
特朗普和瑞安冒险推动投票，显然是对形势做出了错误估判。美国朝野普遍认为，这是继旅行禁令两度遭司法冻结后，特朗普政府兑现竞选承诺、施行“新政”的努力再遭重挫。
但此事的破坏力明显要远远大于前两个事件。不出所料，铺天盖地的评论指出，此事对特朗普后续改革是一个致命打击。
首先，此事是对特朗普领导能力的有力否定。此前特朗普不断标榜自己是交易艺术大师，“我一个人可以搞定美国的问题”。但显然，国会议员不是特朗普集团雇员，会听任他指挥。特朗普在交易过程中善用的是收买和恫吓，但他显然低估了管理一个国家的难度，也对国会内部的运作缺乏了解。特朗普能否及时学会与国会沟通，以避免其他重要议案的通过受影响，目前来看显然是一个未知数。至少，医保案遇阻将使他期待已久的税改和基础设施建设更加困难，至少不可能在未来一个月内通过。也就是说，他的“百日新政”很可能流于口头，而缺乏任何实质性内容。而奥巴马在上任头三个月内的确通过大量有份量的立法。
其次，此事反映出来的一个重要信息是，特朗普对医保法案的了解极其有限。3月7日当瑞安第一次把草案递交给特朗普时，据称特朗普的第一句话是：“这是一个好的议案吗？”此后他反复向下属提出同样的问题。此前的大量报道已经显示，特朗普对白宫颁布的总统行政令的内容和后果所知有限，这在很大程度上解释了，为什么第一次旅行禁令遭致广泛批评并被法院冻结，为什么他2月中旬委任班农为国家安全委员会常任委员后招致激烈批评。这些发生后，特朗普表现出巨大的沮丧和愤怒，但似乎从未反省他处理事情的方式。
同时，观察者们现在也有更多理由怀疑他的学习能力，怀疑他对医保等复杂公共事务的理解能力，怀疑他在房地产和国家大事这两个完全不同的领域之间过渡的能力。大选刚结束时，一位美国同事曾私下里评论说，特朗普的学习曲线是平的，根本不可能从选举中学到任何东西，何况他已年过七十。过去几个月的事实似乎证实了这个判断。一个既缺乏对复杂事务的理解能力，又缺乏沟通能力的领导人，势必容易被下属或其他人利用。
再次，必须认识到，特朗普对此案的不确定态度，与他自己的政治理念有极大关系。特朗普的政治骑墙特性从来不是一个秘密。在医保方面，共和党提出的方案本身与他自己的诸多理念相违背。虽然他自己反复声称“奥巴马医改”不可持续，但他提出的很多主张其实都与“奥巴马医改”的内容相契合，例如，降低低收入者的医疗负担，限制保险业歧视特定医保人员等，都是特朗普曾向他的低收入支持者承诺过的。而新法的诸多内容直接伤害这些低收入者，这对特朗普极为不利。而且在大选结束后与奥巴马在白宫的见面会上，奥巴马曾详细向他解释“奥巴马医改”的意义，特朗普的反应相当积极，证明他不一定非要与“奥巴马医改”为敌。只是此后一连串与奥巴马在其他方面的冲突，也包括政治需要，让睚眦必报的特朗普彻底倒向共和党的意识形态主张。
因此，从政策内容来看，特朗普本应和反对新方案的温和共和党人站在一起，共同反对激进的保守派。但特朗普需要国会，所以必须向控制国会的激进保守派妥协，以赢得国会在税改、基础建设投资等其他项目上的支持。从这一点上讲，特朗普允许该议案在风险很大的情况下递送国会，除了缺乏认知外，在一定程度上也是不得已而为之。也许正因为这个原因，他没有倾力去游说各方。虽然他成功说服民主党人的几率几乎为零，但他没做丝毫努力，这本身就显示他并非全心投入。
此事说明的主要问题是，特朗普在意识形态上的模糊本应成为他整合两党的优势，但前述原因和他个人的性格缺陷，导致他在历史上罕见的一党控制几乎所有权力部门（白宫和国会两院，甚至大部分州长）的利好条件下，依然惨遭失败。特朗普与国会间原本就不牢固的政治联盟，势必因这次合作失败而更加分裂。
所有这些都指向一个结论：特朗普“让美国再次伟大”的梦想在接下来的几年里，会面临各种各样的困扰和阻力。
共和党的问题
不过，这次失利对特朗普虽是一个重大打击，但并非不可挽回。对他来说，新医保法案的主要作用是可用来赢得共和党“建制派”的支持。但他的核心支持者，即狂热的民粹主义和民族主义者，基本来自白人下层，而赢得这部分人的核心政策，除了贸易保护、反移民等针对其他国家的政策外，主要是税改和基础建设项目带来的经济实惠。这些政策尚未尝试，所以对特朗普来说，现在还谈不上彻底失败。
某种程度上，受此次事件打击最大的是瑞安。新医保案是上任不到一年半的瑞安面临的第一项重大立法活动，是对这位“史上最年轻议长”的一个重要考验。某种意义上，新法案流产是共和党内各派对他的领导地位投出的一个不信任票。
但瑞安的危机代表的是共和党的危机——从民主党手中赢回白宫并不能证明共和党能够战胜自己。此事能够证明的是，作为自身意识形态和既得利益的俘虏，共和党有能力造成破坏而无力建树。但这又何尝不是凭靠“不破不立”原则上台的特朗普本人的写照？但恰巧，特朗普总统又离不开这样的一个分裂的、无力的共和党的帮助。
对那些憧憬特朗普能重振美国的人士来说，这或许只是第一次失败的尝试。但以上的分析让人有理由相信，在未来几年里，一位把治理国家当作完成一次房地生意的总统与一个被极端意识形态绑架的共和党之间的联盟，注定会让美国社会面临一场又一场的政治地震.
--------
特朗普就是个“神经病” 果然成不了大气候，4年后等着滚蛋吧。川狗们真是伤透了心啊，哈哈，真为你们难过啊.
----------
这一天，因未能争取到多数票支持，国会众议院共和党领导层在投票前的最后时刻，撤回了旨在废除并替代俗称“奥巴马医改” （即《平价医疗法案》）的《美国医保法》草案。
新医保案流产的原因
在竞选期间，特朗普反复许诺，他的“百日新政”的第一条就是要废除并替代“奥巴马医改”。宣誓就职后当天，特朗普就签署第一项总统行政命令，研究如何推进这项工作。这也是共和党人最为关注、已努力多年的目标。通过新医保法，成为特朗普和共和党志在必得的一项任务。同时，此案的通过与否将是对特朗普领导力的一次重要测试，将影响他今后诸多议案的命运，意义重大。
新医保法案撤回后，特朗普和众议院议长瑞安都表示，在可预见的未来，“奥巴马医改”将存续，而且不大可能在近期内提出新的法案来由国会投票。相反，白宫和共和党将转向税制改革，努力实现大幅减税。
特朗普迅速把责任归咎给民主党，声称撤回原因是民主党众议员的“零支持”。但事实上，他从未游说过民主党人。所有人都知道，民主党人全力反对是预料之中的事。此事未果的主要原因是共和党内部严重分裂。在拒绝投赞成票的众议院共和党人中，保守派抱怨新医保案保留大量对医疗保险业的规制，反“奥巴马医改”不彻底，不足以将后者“连根拔起”；温和派则担忧大量工薪阶层民众将因此失去医保，或无法承担新法中提高的医保费用。3月23日公布的一项民调显示，支持新医保案的选民仅占17%。
新医保案流产暴露的问题
特朗普和瑞安冒险推动投票，显然是对形势做出了错误估判。美国朝野普遍认为，这是继旅行禁令两度遭司法冻结后，特朗普政府兑现竞选承诺、施行“新政”的努力再遭重挫。
但此事的破坏力明显要远远大于前两个事件。不出所料，铺天盖地的评论指出，此事对特朗普后续改革是一个致命打击。
首先，此事是对特朗普领导能力的有力否定。此前特朗普不断标榜自己是交易艺术大师，“我一个人可以搞定美国的问题”。但显然，国会议员不是特朗普集团雇员，会听任他指挥。特朗普在交易过程中善用的是收买和恫吓，但他显然低估了管理一个国家的难度，也对国会内部的运作缺乏了解。特朗普能否及时学会与国会沟通，以避免其他重要议案的通过受影响，目前来看显然是一个未知数。至少，医保案遇阻将使他期待已久的税改和基础设施建设更加困难，至少不可能在未来一个月内通过。也就是说，他的“百日新政”很可能流于口头，而缺乏任何实质性内容。而奥巴马在上任头三个月内的确通过大量有份量的立法。
其次，此事反映出来的一个重要信息是，特朗普对医保法案的了解极其有限。3月7日当瑞安第一次把草案递交给特朗普时，据称特朗普的第一句话是：“这是一个好的议案吗？”此后他反复向下属提出同样的问题。此前的大量报道已经显示，特朗普对白宫颁布的总统行政令的内容和后果所知有限，这在很大程度上解释了，为什么第一次旅行禁令遭致广泛批评并被法院冻结，为什么他2月中旬委任班农为国家安全委员会常任委员后招致激烈批评。这些发生后，特朗普表现出巨大的沮丧和愤怒，但似乎从未反省他处理事情的方式。
同时，观察者们现在也有更多理由怀疑他的学习能力，怀疑他对医保等复杂公共事务的理解能力，怀疑他在房地产和国家大事这两个完全不同的领域之间过渡的能力。大选刚结束时，一位美国同事曾私下里评论说，特朗普的学习曲线是平的，根本不可能从选举中学到任何东西，何况他已年过七十。过去几个月的事实似乎证实了这个判断。一个既缺乏对复杂事务的理解能力，又缺乏沟通能力的领导人，势必容易被下属或其他人利用。
再次，必须认识到，特朗普对此案的不确定态度，与他自己的政治理念有极大关系。特朗普的政治骑墙特性从来不是一个秘密。在医保方面，共和党提出的方案本身与他自己的诸多理念相违背。虽然他自己反复声称“奥巴马医改”不可持续，但他提出的很多主张其实都与“奥巴马医改”的内容相契合，例如，降低低收入者的医疗负担，限制保险业歧视特定医保人员等，都是特朗普曾向他的低收入支持者承诺过的。而新法的诸多内容直接伤害这些低收入者，这对特朗普极为不利。而且在大选结束后与奥巴马在白宫的见面会上，奥巴马曾详细向他解释“奥巴马医改”的意义，特朗普的反应相当积极，证明他不一定非要与“奥巴马医改”为敌。只是此后一连串与奥巴马在其他方面的冲突，也包括政治需要，让睚眦必报的特朗普彻底倒向共和党的意识形态主张。
因此，从政策内容来看，特朗普本应和反对新方案的温和共和党人站在一起，共同反对激进的保守派。但特朗普需要国会，所以必须向控制国会的激进保守派妥协，以赢得国会在税改、基础建设投资等其他项目上的支持。从这一点上讲，特朗普允许该议案在风险很大的情况下递送国会，除了缺乏认知外，在一定程度上也是不得已而为之。也许正因为这个原因，他没有倾力去游说各方。虽然他成功说服民主党人的几率几乎为零，但他没做丝毫努力，这本身就显示他并非全心投入。
此事说明的主要问题是，特朗普在意识形态上的模糊本应成为他整合两党的优势，但前述原因和他个人的性格缺陷，导致他在历史上罕见的一党控制几乎所有权力部门（白宫和国会两院，甚至大部分州长）的利好条件下，依然惨遭失败。特朗普与国会间原本就不牢固的政治联盟，势必因这次合作失败而更加分裂。
所有这些都指向一个结论：特朗普“让美国再次伟大”的梦想在接下来的几年里，会面临各种各样的困扰和阻力。
共和党的问题
不过，这次失利对特朗普虽是一个重大打击，但并非不可挽回。对他来说，新医保法案的主要作用是可用来赢得共和党“建制派”的支持。但他的核心支持者，即狂热的民粹主义和民族主义者，基本来自白人下层，而赢得这部分人的核心政策，除了贸易保护、反移民等针对其他国家的政策外，主要是税改和基础建设项目带来的经济实惠。这些政策尚未尝试，所以对特朗普来说，现在还谈不上彻底失败。
某种程度上，受此次事件打击最大的是瑞安。新医保案是上任不到一年半的瑞安面临的第一项重大立法活动，是对这位“史上最年轻议长”的一个重要考验。某种意义上，新法案流产是共和党内各派对他的领导地位投出的一个不信任票。
但瑞安的危机代表的是共和党的危机——从民主党手中赢回白宫并不能证明共和党能够战胜自己。此事能够证明的是，作为自身意识形态和既得利益的俘虏，共和党有能力造成破坏而无力建树。但这又何尝不是凭靠“不破不立”原则上台的特朗普本人的写照？但恰巧，特朗普总统又离不开这样的一个分裂的、无力的共和党的帮助。
对那些憧憬特朗普能重振美国的人士来说，这或许只是第一次失败的尝试。但以上的分析让人有理由相信，在未来几年里，一位把治理国家当作完成一次房地生意的总统与一个被极端意识形态绑架的共和党之间的联盟，注定会让美国社会面临一场又一场的政治地震.
--------
特朗普就是个“神经病” 果然成不了大气候，4年后等着滚蛋吧。川狗们真是伤透了心啊，哈哈，真为你们难过啊.
----------
Donald, This I Will Tell You
Maureen Dowd
MARCH 25, 2017
WASHINGTON — Dear Donald,
We’ve known each other a long time, so I think I can be blunt.
You know how you said at campaign rallies that you did not like being identified as a politician?
Don’t worry. No one will ever mistake you for a politician.
After this past week, they won’t even mistake you for a top-notch negotiator.
I was born here. The first image in my memory bank is the Capitol, all lit up at night. And my primary observation about Washington is this: Unless you’re careful, you end up turning into what you started out scorning.
And you, Donald, are getting a reputation as a sucker. And worse, a sucker who is a tool of the D.C. establishment.
Your whole campaign was mocking your rivals and the D.C. elite, jawing about how Americans had turned into losers, with our bad deals and open borders and the Obamacare “disaster.”
And you were going to fly in on your gilded plane and fix all that in a snap.
You mused that a good role model would be Ronald Reagan. As you saw it, Reagan was a big, good-looking guy with a famous pompadour; he had also been a Democrat and an entertainer. But Reagan had one key quality that you don’t have: He knew what he didn’t know.
You both resembled Macy’s Thanksgiving Day balloons, floating above the nitty-gritty and focusing on a few big thoughts. But President Reagan was confident enough to accept that he needed experts below, deftly maneuvering the strings.
You’re just careering around on your own, crashing into buildings and losing altitude, growling at the cameras and spewing nasty conspiracy theories, instead of offering a sunny smile, bipartisanship, optimism and professionalism.
You promised to get the best people around you in the White House, the best of the best. In fact, “best” is one of your favorite words.
Instead, you dragged that motley skeleton crew into the White House and let them create a feuding, leaking, belligerent, conspiratorial, sycophantic atmosphere. Instead of a smooth, classy operator like James Baker, you have a Manichaean anarchist in Steve Bannon.
You knew the Republicans were full of hot air. They haven’t had to pass anything in a long time, and they have no aptitude for governing. To paraphrase an old Barney Frank line, asking the Republicans to govern is like asking Frank to judge the Miss America contest — “If your heart’s not in it, you don’t do a very good job.”
You knew that Paul Ryan’s vaunted reputation as a policy wonk was fake news. Republicans have been running on repealing and replacing Obamacare for years and they never even bothered to come up with a valid alternative.
And neither did you, despite all your promises to replace Obamacare with “something terrific” because you wanted everyone to be covered.
Instead, you sold the D.O.A. bill the Irish undertaker gave you as though it were a luxury condo, ignoring the fact that it was a cruel flimflam, a huge tax cut for the rich disguised as a health care bill. You were so concerned with the “win” that you forgot your “forgotten” Americans, the older, poorer people in rural areas who would be hurt by the bill.
As The Times’s chief Washington correspondent Carl Hulse put it, the G.O.P. falls into clover with a lock on the White House and both houses of Congress, and what’s the first thing it does? Slip on a banana peel. Incompetence Inc.
“They tried to sweeten the deal at the end by offering a more expensive bill with fewer health benefits, but alas, it wasn’t enough!” former Obama speechwriter Jon Favreau slyly tweeted.
Despite the best efforts of Bannon to act as though the whole fiasco was a clever way to bury Ryan — a man he disdains as “the embodiment of the ‘globalist-corporatist’ Republican elite,” as Gabriel Sherman put it in New York magazine — it won’t work.
And you can jump on the phone with The Times’s Maggie Haberman and The Washington Post’s Robert Costa — ignoring that you’ve labeled them the “fake media” — and act like you’re in control. You can say that people should have waited for “Phase 2” and “Phase 3” — whatever they would have been — and that Obamacare is going to explode and that the Democrats are going to get the blame. But it doesn’t work that way. You own it now.
You’re all about flashy marketing so you didn’t notice that the bill was junk, so lame that even Republicans skittered away.
You were humiliated right out of the chute by the establishment guys who hooked you into their agenda — a massive transfer of wealth to rich people — and drew you away from your own.
You sold yourself as the businessman who could shake things up and make Washington work again. Instead, you got worked over by the Republican leadership and the business community, who set you up to do their bidding.
That’s why they’re putting up with all your craziness about Russia and wiretapping and unending lies and rattling our allies.
They’re counting on you being a delusional dupe who didn’t even know what was in the bill because you’re sitting around in a bathrobe getting your information from wackadoodles on Fox News and then, as The Post reported, peppering aides with the query, “Is this really a good bill?”
You got played.
It took W. years to smash everything. You’re way ahead of schedule.
And I can say you’re doing badly, because I’m a columnist, and you’re not. Say hello to everybody, O.K.?
Sincerely, Maureen
Maureen Dowd
MARCH 25, 2017
WASHINGTON — Dear Donald,
We’ve known each other a long time, so I think I can be blunt.
You know how you said at campaign rallies that you did not like being identified as a politician?
Don’t worry. No one will ever mistake you for a politician.
After this past week, they won’t even mistake you for a top-notch negotiator.
I was born here. The first image in my memory bank is the Capitol, all lit up at night. And my primary observation about Washington is this: Unless you’re careful, you end up turning into what you started out scorning.
And you, Donald, are getting a reputation as a sucker. And worse, a sucker who is a tool of the D.C. establishment.
Your whole campaign was mocking your rivals and the D.C. elite, jawing about how Americans had turned into losers, with our bad deals and open borders and the Obamacare “disaster.”
And you were going to fly in on your gilded plane and fix all that in a snap.
You mused that a good role model would be Ronald Reagan. As you saw it, Reagan was a big, good-looking guy with a famous pompadour; he had also been a Democrat and an entertainer. But Reagan had one key quality that you don’t have: He knew what he didn’t know.
You both resembled Macy’s Thanksgiving Day balloons, floating above the nitty-gritty and focusing on a few big thoughts. But President Reagan was confident enough to accept that he needed experts below, deftly maneuvering the strings.
You’re just careering around on your own, crashing into buildings and losing altitude, growling at the cameras and spewing nasty conspiracy theories, instead of offering a sunny smile, bipartisanship, optimism and professionalism.
You promised to get the best people around you in the White House, the best of the best. In fact, “best” is one of your favorite words.
Instead, you dragged that motley skeleton crew into the White House and let them create a feuding, leaking, belligerent, conspiratorial, sycophantic atmosphere. Instead of a smooth, classy operator like James Baker, you have a Manichaean anarchist in Steve Bannon.
You knew the Republicans were full of hot air. They haven’t had to pass anything in a long time, and they have no aptitude for governing. To paraphrase an old Barney Frank line, asking the Republicans to govern is like asking Frank to judge the Miss America contest — “If your heart’s not in it, you don’t do a very good job.”
You knew that Paul Ryan’s vaunted reputation as a policy wonk was fake news. Republicans have been running on repealing and replacing Obamacare for years and they never even bothered to come up with a valid alternative.
And neither did you, despite all your promises to replace Obamacare with “something terrific” because you wanted everyone to be covered.
Instead, you sold the D.O.A. bill the Irish undertaker gave you as though it were a luxury condo, ignoring the fact that it was a cruel flimflam, a huge tax cut for the rich disguised as a health care bill. You were so concerned with the “win” that you forgot your “forgotten” Americans, the older, poorer people in rural areas who would be hurt by the bill.
As The Times’s chief Washington correspondent Carl Hulse put it, the G.O.P. falls into clover with a lock on the White House and both houses of Congress, and what’s the first thing it does? Slip on a banana peel. Incompetence Inc.
“They tried to sweeten the deal at the end by offering a more expensive bill with fewer health benefits, but alas, it wasn’t enough!” former Obama speechwriter Jon Favreau slyly tweeted.
Despite the best efforts of Bannon to act as though the whole fiasco was a clever way to bury Ryan — a man he disdains as “the embodiment of the ‘globalist-corporatist’ Republican elite,” as Gabriel Sherman put it in New York magazine — it won’t work.
And you can jump on the phone with The Times’s Maggie Haberman and The Washington Post’s Robert Costa — ignoring that you’ve labeled them the “fake media” — and act like you’re in control. You can say that people should have waited for “Phase 2” and “Phase 3” — whatever they would have been — and that Obamacare is going to explode and that the Democrats are going to get the blame. But it doesn’t work that way. You own it now.
You’re all about flashy marketing so you didn’t notice that the bill was junk, so lame that even Republicans skittered away.
You were humiliated right out of the chute by the establishment guys who hooked you into their agenda — a massive transfer of wealth to rich people — and drew you away from your own.
You sold yourself as the businessman who could shake things up and make Washington work again. Instead, you got worked over by the Republican leadership and the business community, who set you up to do their bidding.
That’s why they’re putting up with all your craziness about Russia and wiretapping and unending lies and rattling our allies.
They’re counting on you being a delusional dupe who didn’t even know what was in the bill because you’re sitting around in a bathrobe getting your information from wackadoodles on Fox News and then, as The Post reported, peppering aides with the query, “Is this really a good bill?”
You got played.
It took W. years to smash everything. You’re way ahead of schedule.
And I can say you’re doing badly, because I’m a columnist, and you’re not. Say hello to everybody, O.K.?
Sincerely, Maureen
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