《卫报》：川普通过摧毁美国软实力，让中国重新伟大

Two years ago, some European and US experts gathered to discuss China in an elegant English country house. The setting was seductive, but the mood was dark. Two years into Xi Jinping’s presidency, China’s politics were turning away from the liberalising trend of the previous three decades, towards a hard-edged nationalism that was discomfiting China’s immediate neighbours and their western allies.China was getting more powerful but less friendly, squeezing foreign competition out of its internal markets, throwing its weight around the SouthChina sea, crushing internal dissent and enforcing loyalty to the regime.

两年前，欧美专家汇聚在一个典雅的英国乡间别墅，环境宜人，然而大家的心情却很灰暗。习近平当上国家主席两年后，中国政治走向和之前30年不断自由化的方向完全偏离了，转向了更加强硬的民族主义，让中国的邻国以及他们的西方盟友都有很强的挫败感。
中国变得更加强大，但却不那么友好了，中国将外国竞争者从自己内部的市场赶走，在南海仗势欺人，强迫所有人都对政权效忠。

The mostly liberal-minded scholars had assumed that the spectacular success of China’s economic opening and partial political relaxation would lead to a more open society, greater rule of law and more political inclusion. They were dismayed to discover that Xi’s mission was not to steer China towards political pluralism and tolerance, but to shore up the Communist party, in defiance of what the scholars had assumed was an inevitable trend: that an emerging middle class would always force a political opening.
If that was not going to happen, given China’s vastly increased influence in the world, a global conflict between the systems, values and norms of the pluralist, democratic United States and China’s Communist party seemed inevitable. It would be unpleasant, but nobody doubted that US values would prevail.

绝大多数自由派学者当时认定，中国经济开放带来的巨大成功，和政治上部分的松动，必然会带来一个更开发的社会、更多的法制和更包容的政治。但他们发现习并不打算把中国引向多元化的政治和宽容、而是要维持共产党政权，这和他们中大多数设想的“新兴中产阶级一定会要求政治改革”的历史必然趋势完全背道而驰，让他们感到非常失望。
考虑到中国在世界上不断增加的影响力，如果中国不进行政治改革，那多元化民主的美国和中共之间就政治体制、价值观和道德规范方面要发生一场全球性的斗争似乎就是不可避免的了。这让人很难过，但当时没人怀疑美国的价值观最后必然获胜。

The group discussed whether China could succeed. What might go wrong? Would China reset the world’s economic and security arrangements in its favour? What could the US do to defend its norms and values beyond concluding theTrabs Pacific Partnership (TPP), the huge US-led Pacific trade initiative, and shoring up political security guarantees to its close regional allies, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam, to limit the growth of China’s influence?
The one scenario not discussed was that the US would tear up its own rules, leaving the field open to China to consolidate its dominance of theAsia Pacific and extend its global influence. Nobody even imagined such a far-fetched possibility. Donald Trump’s actions seem to have surprised Beijing as much as they have dismayed America’s allies. Now the challenge for China is how to reap the benefits and contain the inevitable damage.

他们当时讨论了中国是否能成功。什么事情可能出问题？中国会为了自己的利益彻底重构世界经济和安全机制么？除了批准tpp外，美国还该怎么做，才能保卫自己的道德规范和价值观，并维系自己对该地区亲密盟友日本、韩国和越南的安全承诺，来遏制中国的影响力？
有一个没有得到讨论的情景就是美国会撕毁他自己指定的规则，让出一个真空使得中国能整合自己在亚太的统治地位，并扩展全球影响力。没人设想过这么荒诞的可能性。川普的行为让北京的吃惊程度，并不亚于其让美国盟友的失望程度。现在中国的挑战是如何从中获益，并尽量减少不可避免的损失了。

In terms of international diplomacy, things are going well. It’s hard to imagine Trump quoting Thucydides, or Stephen Hawkins or Herman Hesse, or cramming references to Pandora’s box, the Peace of Westphalia and the sword of Damocles into a 58-minute plea for peace and international cooperation. Such a carefully crafted speech might have been delivered by previous US presidents, since it paid fulsome homage to the core values the US has promoted since 1945. But this was delivered by the general secretary of the Chinese Communist party and president of the China, to an audience at the United Nations in Geneva in January. China’s proposition to the world, Xi said, was to “build a community of shared future for mankind and achieve shared and win-win development”.

在国际外交方面，一切都很顺。很难想象川普发表长达58分钟的关于和平和国际合作的演说，并在其中引用修昔底德、霍金和赫尔曼.黑塞，或者在其中提到潘多拉的盒子、威斯特法利亚的和平与达摩克勒斯之剑。这种精心准备的演讲本该是之前美国总统发表的，因为他对1945年以来美国一直推行的核心价值观推崇有加。但他是由中国共产党总书记和中国国家主席在日内瓦的联合国发表的。习说，中国对世界的建议是，“共同构建人类命运共同体”和“合作共赢”。

Such a claim might previously have encountered polite scepticism. Today, it receives an almost uncritical welcome.
Trump has charged China with “raping” the US, a word he might have avoided for other reasons. Xi reminded his audience of China’s contribution to global economic stability since the financial crisis, of an average of 30% of global growth each year. “In the coming five years,” he predicted, “China will import $8tn of goods, attract $600bn of foreign investment, make $750bn of outbound investment, and Chinese tourists will make 700 million outbound visits.”

之前这种话恐怕只会得到礼貌的疑虑，而今，他得到的是不假思索的欢迎。
川普指责中国“强奸”美国——–这个词汇他这个人其实还是最好少用（应该是暗指他的性骚扰丑闻和录音门）。习则提醒听众，中国在金融危机后对全球经济稳定的贡献—–每年全球经济增长的30%来自中国。“未来五年”，他预言，“中国将进口8万亿美元的商品，吸收6000亿美元的外来投资，中国对外投资总额将达到7500亿美元，出境旅游将达到7亿人次”。

Xi’s commitment to global capitalism is convincing, given China’s dependence on exports. More audacious was his contention that “we always put people’s rights and interests above everything else and have worked hard to advance and uphold human rights”. Human rights organisations were excluded from the occasion.
But if Xi’s claim is contestable, it pales in comparison with the exaggerations, false claims and threats by Trump and his circle.

考虑到中国对出口的依赖，习对全球化资本主义的支持是令人信服的。但他更加大胆，宣称我们“始终把人民权利放在首位，不断促进和保护人权”。会场里不允许人权组织进入。
但如果习的讲话有争议，和川普及其同党的各种吹嘘、撒谎和威胁相比，那可就真不算什么了。

There will be few winners in a world of escalating tensions and disruption. China would not have picked this moment for a fight with the US. But if it can consolidate its own economic arrangements in the region and beyond, using its economic muscle to its diplomatic and political advantage while escaping the burden of censure that its internal repression has provoked to date, it will be a huge win for China.
Trump’s singular achievement in his short time as president has been to trash US soft power assets and make China’s regime look less objectionable. Before Trump, even as western countries scrambled to access the Chinese market, they regarded Beijing with scepticism. Why should anyone believe the global message of a regime that does not tolerate dissent or domestic challenges?
But that is now a question we must begin to ask of the US. China’s official untruths seem modest in comparison with those of a man who can barely get through a sentence without a lie. For Beijing, the question now is how far an attempt to replace US influence is possible or desirable. For US allies, the question is how far should we wish Beijing success?

不断升级的紧张局势和冲突下，不会有什么赢家。中国现在也不会主动和美国对抗。但假如中国能整合自己在区域内以及其他地方的经济安排，并利用自己的经济力量在外交和政治上获得优势，同时还可以避免他内部镇压过去引发的批评，那对中国来说确实是个巨大的胜利。
川普一个巨大成就就是，在当上总统后很短的时间内就毁掉了美国的软实力，让中国的政权看起来没那么讨厌了。在川普之前，即使西方国家拼命想打入中国市场，他们对北京也是有疑虑的。为何要相信一个不允许异议或国内批评的政权？
但现在，这个问题该问美国了。

－－－－－－－－